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How Do Chelsea's Stars Rank in Respect of Shot Conversion? A Deep Dive Statistical Review

The shot conversion percentage stat is intended to measure how efficient of a finisher a particular player or team is. In other words, t...


The shot conversion percentage stat is intended to measure how efficient of a finisher a particular player or team is. In other words, the number of shots necessary to score. Throughout this article, I will be referring to shot conversion percentages as conversion rate. I believe this statistic is underrated and could be interesting for analysts to further dissect. Ultimately, finishing is a natural instinct in football and a major craft of the game.


Conversion rate can be found in two similar ways: (1) by dividing the total # of goals by the total # of shots multiplied by 100 per player or team. Or (2) by the total # of goals divided by their total shots on target multiplied by 100. My main intention from this is to provide beneficial data for a truly overlooked goal-scoring stat.


To conduct an accurate analysis of conversion rate, I’ve decided to commit with several constants:
- Pulling stats from ONLY domestic leagues: The reasoning behind this decision is because every professional player participates in domestic league football, but not all teams play in the same number of external matches such as UEFA, international cups, domestic cups, friendlies, etc
- 2019/2020 season only.
- Forwards/Wingers/Midfielders: 1,000+ minutes & 15 shot minimum
- Forwards/Wingers/Midfielders: 3 goal minimum (not including pens). 
- Defenders: 2 goal minimum + 10 shot minimum and/or 1000+ minutes.


Now that there is a solid understanding of the conversion rate stat, let’s dive right in:
The screenshots below, resemble all conversion rate rankings which are positionally categorised from a pool of English Premier League players who meet the required criteria stated above.
*All the screenshots utilized in this piece will resemble the total shots model 

(1):   (TOTAL GOALS ÷ TOTAL SHOTS)  X 100 = CONVERSION RATE

Forwards / Wingers / Midfielders: Top 40

Centre Forwards / Strikers

Wingers

Midfielders

Fullbacks

Centre Halves

Forwards / Wingers / Midfielders: Bottom 10

For Chelsea players, 7 players meet the requirements for this research, which is interestingly the most out of any other Premier League team. Kante, Alonso, and Rudiger all placing top 5 in conversion rate for their positional category. Tammy Abraham placed in top 20 rates out of the total forwards & midfielders. I would love to see Tammy reach the 20-25% tier. Willian at 7.8% can definitely improve his finishing efficiency. Out of all Chelsea players, Marcos Alonso has the most impressive conversion rating of 22.2% which is expected knowing his goal scoring ability from the wingback position.

Based on the evidence shown above, I believe it’s safe to seriously consider this stat when comparing the top finishers in football, especially when the top scorers are more than not, the most effective finishers:
*If a player takes 80 shots to score 10 goals, while another player only takes 40 shots to score 10, I would personally rather have the efficient striker that only has to take 4 shots per goal, rather than 8 shots per goal*.

The reasoning behind using the total overall shot model (1) is because when analysing an efficiency statistic, it is necessary to account for all risks taken in the attempt to reach a particular result. Using only shots on target can cause the stat to be skewed because every opportunity consumed wasn’t technically accounted for in the percentage. Including total goals provides a more honest depiction of the stat.

Written by - @JRcentre
Edit by - @KristenPulisic

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